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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Jan 4, 2023, at 3:03 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“All of that combined is likely to lead to housing prices continuing to fall over the next year,”
Watch at 3:03Don’t Buy A Home In 2023 (The Worst Drop On Record)
PredictionHouse priceswill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

3.85%

Jan 4, 2023

Reading at close

6.06%

Jan 4, 2024

Change

+2.21 pp

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 6.06% at Jan 4, 2024, a change of +2.21 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.85%2.26%Feb 3, 2023−1.59 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%0.07%Apr 4, 2023−3.78 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%0.88%Jul 3, 2023−2.97 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect3.85%6.06%Jan 4, 2024+2.21 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%0.95%Jan 3, 2026−2.90 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jan 3, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.85%4.04%Dec 31, 2024+0.19 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 2.26% at Feb 3, 2023, a change of −1.59 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 0.07% at Apr 4, 2023, a change of −3.78 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 3, 2023, a change of −2.97 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 6.06% at Jan 4, 2024, a change of +2.21 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 0.95% at Jan 3, 2026, a change of −2.90 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 3, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

House prices stood at 3.85% at the start of the window and 4.04% at Dec 31, 2024, a change of +0.19 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

all, as inflation increases, people have less disposable income, companies have weaker earnings, and as a result, they begin to scale back, usually with employees. We've already seen many tech companies reduce their workforce, and with more job cuts coming, that means less upward pressure for housing. And finally, fourth, we have more inventory. Redfin found that the number of homes listed for sale increased by 15% year-over-year, which is the largest increase on record. Not to mention, the median sale price is only up 1 and 1/2% from a year ago. All of that combined is likely to lead to housing prices continuing to fall over the next year, although in terms of how much, I recommend you take a seat. And yes, this is a turkey baster that I've been using this entire time. Let's start with the National Association of Realtors outlook for 2023, which admittedly is one of the worst on the list. In terms of overall prices, they believe that home values are going to remain relatively unchanged from where they are today, meaning half the country could experience small price gains, while the other half could see some declines. They also believe that mortgage rates will begin to fall and likely

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed