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Coin Bureau: House prices will fall

Said on Aug 4, 2024, at 33:25 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“in the longer term however asset prices will cool off and wages will continue Rising this means that in the next decade buying a house and starting a family will become much more affordable”
Watch at 33:25Watch Out!! Economy Could Get Worse?! The BIS Predicts This!
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.34%

Aug 4, 2024

Reading at close

1.54%

Aug 4, 2025

Change

−2.80 pp

House prices stood at 4.34% at the start of the window and 1.54% at Aug 4, 2025, a change of −2.80 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.34%4%Sep 3, 2024−0.35 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.34%3.77%Nov 2, 2024−0.57 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.34%4.21%Jan 31, 2025−0.13 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.34%1.54%Aug 4, 2025−2.80 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 4, 2027——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 3, 2029——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 4.34% at the start of the window and 4.00% at Sep 3, 2024, a change of −0.35 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 4.34% at the start of the window and 3.77% at Nov 2, 2024, a change of −0.57 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 4.34% at the start of the window and 4.21% at Jan 31, 2025, a change of −0.13 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 4.34% at the start of the window and 1.54% at Aug 4, 2025, a change of −2.80 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 4, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 3, 2029.

What was said around it

inflation are likely to remain elevated for the average person for now on the other Edge meanwhile this will create extreme social pressures that result in political change hopefully for the better as we discussed in that aforementioned video about the end of globalization most countries appear to be shifting towards a form of economic nationalism in the short term this will suck because asset prices will stay high while the prices of goods rise as a result of workers finally being paid their fair share in the longer term however asset prices will cool off and wages will continue Rising this means that in the next decade buying a house and starting a family will become much more affordable most importantly how hard you work will finally be reflected in your paycheck which will supercharge economic productivity in economic terms the power will shift from Capital to labor and this will step the stage for the commodity Market cycle in the 2030s I alluded to earlier for the rest of the this decade though it will probably be more of what we've seen in recent years increasing political and geopolitical instability asset prices will probably keep Rising because of central bank money Printing

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed