Graham Stephan, relaying CoreLogic: House prices will fall

Said on Jul 20, 2022, at 7:47 in the video.

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

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Attributed to CoreLogic — not scored

What was said around it

could reinvest somewhere else at a higher return with a lot less work on my end. Although, in terms of the overall state of the housing market, here's what you should be made aware of. First of all, it's no surprise that higher mortgage rates are going to have a negative impact on the housing market. In fact, it's said that a 1% point increase in mortgage rates reduces demand by 10.4% suggesting that policies that target mortgage rates are an effective way to influence the housing market in the short run. Because of that, CoreLogic found that out of the 392 markets they looked at, 45 of them had a greater than 50% chance of seeing a decline over the next 12 months. Which, just for reference, a month ago only 26 markets fell into that category. As you're about to see, even though some areas show some risk of a decline, the most susceptible areas are the ones which saw the biggest increases including Boise, Idaho, Bend, Oregon, Fresno, California, and Lake Havasu. However, just because they deem them as overvalued doesn't necessarily mean they're going to drop. And with inventory still remaining near record lows, believe it or not, prices are still expected to rise by another 5% year-over-year.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed