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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Oct 7, 2019, at 0:38 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I'm a believer of long-term appreciation of property values.”
Watch at 0:38My Millionaire Real Estate Investing Strategy
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

3.11%

Oct 7, 2019

Reading at close

8.24%

Oct 6, 2020

Change

+5.13 pp

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 8.24% at Oct 6, 2020, a change of +5.13 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.11%3.26%Nov 6, 2019+0.15 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.11%3.77%Jan 5, 2020+0.67 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.11%4.69%Apr 4, 2020+1.58 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.11%8.24%Oct 6, 2020+5.13 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.11%9.21%Oct 6, 2022+6.11 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.11%3.6%Oct 5, 2024+0.49 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 3.26% at Nov 6, 2019, a change of +0.15 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 3.77% at Jan 5, 2020, a change of +0.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 4.69% at Apr 4, 2020, a change of +1.58 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 8.24% at Oct 6, 2020, a change of +5.13 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 6, 2022, a change of +6.11 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 3.11% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Oct 5, 2024, a change of +0.49 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

because you haven't watched that video yet, then shame on you. Go and watch that video and hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm, of course. But, I will summarize that video in just like 20 seconds. Here you go. First, I could borrow a lot of cheap money by taking out a fixed 30-year loan at an interest rate that's just barely above inflation. Secondly, I can leverage my money to get an even higher return on my investment. Third, real estate just tends to make for some really good cash flow. Fourth, I can get a lot of great tax advantages. And number five, I'm a believer of long-term appreciation of property values. So, given all of that, it's pretty much been an unspoken goal of mine to try to buy a new property every single year, whether it be for myself or for an investment, whichever comes first. And this year is absolutely no exception. I have been grinding away every single day over the last year, pretty much saving 100% of my income in preparation to buy something new this year. And this officially begins my home search again since last year. So, I thought I would document my process and experience buying another property, go over exactly what I look for, and also go over

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed