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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Jul 27, 2022, at 3:15 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in the short term I'll admit it's nearly impossible to predict how anything is going to react but generally long-term home prices tend to Trend upwards”
Watch at 3:15THE FED JUST FLIPPED THE MARKET | Major Changes Explained
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

15.86%

Jul 27, 2022

Reading at close

0.88%

Jul 27, 2023

Change

−14.98 pp

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 27, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%13.08%Aug 26, 2022−2.78 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%9.21%Oct 25, 2022−6.65 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%3.85%Jan 23, 2023−12.01 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%0.88%Jul 27, 2023−14.98 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%1.64%Jul 26, 2025−14.22 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jul 26, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 26, 2022, a change of −2.78 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 25, 2022, a change of −6.65 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 3.85% at Jan 23, 2023, a change of −12.01 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 27, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 1.64% at Jul 26, 2025, a change of −14.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 26, 2027.

What was said around it

alternative you might ask well at least it's a good time to rent oh wait uh actually no those prices are going up too never mind now in all seriousness as long long as you're confident that you'll keep your job you have a strong income and you could patiently wait for the right deal to come along then there's no harm in buying now as long as you plan to keep it at least seven to ten years some studies even show that home prices continue to rise in high inflation environments so nominal prices could stay the exact same of course in the short term I'll admit it's nearly impossible to predict how anything is going to react but generally long-term home prices tend to Trend upwards so if you're a buyer these changes shouldn't completely derail your plans and if interest rates ever come down in the future you could always refinance at a lower rate now the second loser could unfortunately be the stock market when it comes to interest rates there is no shortage of charts and graphs out there showing that stock prices took off the moment interest rates started to decline drawing the conclusion that the opposite must also be true if interest rates go up and on the most basic level they're kinda right

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed