Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on May 4, 2022, at 10:08 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices Begin to Fall or the stock market continues to sell off I'm not changing my plan at all”
Watch at 10:08THE FED JUST HIKED RATES *AGAIN* | Major Changes Explained
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

20.03%

May 4, 2022

Reading at close

−0.27%

May 4, 2023

Change

−20.30 pp

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 4, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band20.03%18.14%Jun 3, 2022−1.89 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%13.08%Aug 2, 2022−6.95 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%9.21%Oct 31, 2022−10.81 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%−0.27%May 4, 2023−20.30 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%2.36%May 3, 2025−17.67 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 18.14% at Jun 3, 2022, a change of −1.89 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 2, 2022, a change of −6.95 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 31, 2022, a change of −10.81 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 4, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 2.36% at May 3, 2025, a change of −17.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 3, 2027.

What was said around it

a three to six month emergency fund at all times only take fixed rate debt if you're buying a house or a car and only buy Investments that you plan to hold for at least seven to ten years if yes these are the same things that I would be telling you to do when times are good and frankly you should always be practicing good financial habits even when the markets move up for seemingly no reason but the tried and true investors educate themselves on the markets they understand what's going on and then they buy and hold as usual even though I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices Begin to Fall or the stock market continues to sell off I'm not changing my plan at all because we have no clue what might happen when things might turn around or how long things will last so yes even though the Federal Reserve can bulk or shock the market and Drug pull everybody with higher than expected interest rates I just keep piling in every single day writing the roller coaster and no matter what smash the Subscribe button for the YouTube algorithm and also don't forget to check out our sponsor wealthfront Down Below in the description to take advantage of their offer before it expires so with that said

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed