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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Jun 9, 2025, at 14:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I tend to believe that we're going to see sales prices soften over the next few years, which is probably something healthy for the entire economy.”
Watch at 14:44The Housing Market Just Flipped – Sellers Panicking!
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

1.93%

Jun 9, 2025

Reading at close

1.55%

Jun 9, 2026

Change

−0.38 pp

House prices stood at 1.93% at the start of the window and 1.55% at Jun 9, 2026, a change of −0.38 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.93%1.64%Jul 9, 2025−0.29 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.93%1.28%Sep 7, 2025−0.66 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.93%1.31%Dec 6, 2025−0.62 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.93%1.55%Jun 9, 2026−0.38 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 8, 2028——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 8, 2030——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 1.93% at the start of the window and 1.64% at Jul 9, 2025, a change of −0.29 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 1.93% at the start of the window and 1.28% at Sep 7, 2025, a change of −0.66 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 1.93% at the start of the window and 1.31% at Dec 6, 2025, a change of −0.62 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 1.93% at the start of the window and 1.55% at Jun 9, 2026, a change of −0.38 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2030.

What was said around it

get this project done. They basically go and get you multiple bids from different contractors who they work closely with, and then they negotiate them on your behalf to get you the best possible price while also making sure that they stick on budget. Like I said, I literally wouldn't have done this without them, especially because I live out of state, so everything so far has been flawless. So, if you're interested in that and you want $1,000 off, the link is down below in the description. Anyway, besides that opportunity, I tend to believe that we're going to see sales prices soften over the next few years, which is probably something healthy for the entire economy. Although, definitely let me know what you think down below in the comments. As always, I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can. And uh, hey, if I missed anything, feel free to let me know down below. Thank you so much and until next

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed