Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Mar 11, 2022, at 12:09 in the video.

What was saidMar 11, 2022

@grahamstephan

“Market meaning prices might not rise as fast as they have been but they could still very well rise the key point to look for throughout the next year is simply going to be how many new homes are coming on the market”

Watch at 12:09It’s Over: Why Investors Are Screwed

PredictionHouse priceswill riseby Dec 31, 2023

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

20.87%

Mar 11, 2022

Reading at close

0.88%

Mar 11, 2023

Change

−19.99 pp

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Mar 11, 2023, a change of −19.99 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	20.87%	20.8%Apr 10, 2022	−0.06 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	20.87%	18.14%Jun 9, 2022	−2.73 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	20.87%	10.78%Sep 7, 2022	−10.09 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	20.87%	0.88%Mar 11, 2023	−19.99 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	20.87%	3.48%Mar 10, 2025	−17.38 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Mar 10, 2027	—	—
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	20.87%	5.43%Dec 31, 2023	−15.44 pp	—

Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 20.80% at Apr 10, 2022, a change of −0.06 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 18.14% at Jun 9, 2022, a change of −2.73 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 10.78% at Sep 7, 2022, a change of −10.09 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 3.48% at Mar 10, 2025, a change of −17.38 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 10, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

House prices stood at 20.87% at the start of the window and 5.43% at Dec 31, 2023, a change of −15.44 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

even higher the reality is low inventory is not going away and as mortgage rates rise even though that might dampen price growth it also risks keeping current homeowners in place who want to keep their low interest rate mortgage than move and have to get a new one at an even higher interest rate when asked about this The Economist at first American Financial said that Rising mortgage rates may be a housing market headwind in 2022 but housing prices will moderate resulting in a more balanced Market meaning prices might not rise as fast as they have been but they could still very well rise the key point to look for throughout the next year is simply going to be how many new homes are coming on the market as they say the real estate markets defined equilibrium is a six-month supply of homes for sale when it goes above that Mark the options are plentiful and it becomes a buyer's market anything below is more beneficial to sellers January's inventory measured 1.6 leading of course to the prices that we're seeing today now ultimately as someone has been in the real estate market full time for over 13 years my advice is to only buy a home that you intend on keeping for seven to ten years only

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

More on House prices