Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Jan 13, 2026, at 9:20 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the end result is most likely just going to be slightly higher housing prices.”
Watch at 9:20Mortgage Rates PLUMMET – What This Means For Home Prices!
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Within band so far · 180 days

Reading when said

0.95%

Jan 13, 2026

Reading at close

1.87%

Jul 12, 2026

Change

+0.92 pp

House prices stood at 0.95% at the start of the window and 1.87% at Jul 12, 2026, a change of +0.92 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.95%0.73%Feb 12, 2026−0.22 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.95%0.93%Apr 13, 2026−0.02 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.95%1.87%Jul 12, 2026+0.92 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jan 13, 2027——
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jan 12, 2029——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jan 12, 2031——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 0.95% at the start of the window and 0.73% at Feb 12, 2026, a change of −0.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 0.95% at the start of the window and 0.93% at Apr 13, 2026, a change of −0.02 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 0.95% at the start of the window and 1.87% at Jul 12, 2026, a change of +0.92 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 13, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 12, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 12, 2031.

What was said around it

this sounds like an improvement, some experts believe that short-term this could actually cause home prices to spike back upwards as buyers scramble to lock in lower interest rates. Or, I guess, as the Realtor.com chief economist points out, the resulting boost to buyer demand could put upward pressure on home prices, offsetting some of the intended affordability relief. Or, I guess, put more simply, cheaper financing just allows prices to rise until the monthly payment reaches an equilibrium of supply and demand. And without a meaningful increase in supply, the end result is most likely just going to be slightly higher housing prices. In addition to that, it's also important to clarify that as of right now, this is not an ongoing injection of money like we saw back in 2020. Instead, it is a one-off short-term intervention. And as a result of that, it's unlikely to change builder behavior or materially increase housing production. Look, from my perspective, objectively, even though $200 billion seems like a lot of money, for context, the size of the entire mortgage back securities market is currently 11 trillion, and the Fed still holds $2 trillion of it on its balance sheet. This means

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed