Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Aug 26, 2022, at 0:00 in the video.

What was saidAug 26, 2022

@grahamstephan

“home prices are starting to fall buyers haven't been this pessimistic in a decade the housing recession will probably end up being more severe”

Watch at 0:00It Started: The Housing Market Is Collapsing

PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

13.08%

Aug 26, 2022

Reading at close

2.55%

Aug 26, 2023

Change

−10.53 pp

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Aug 26, 2023, a change of −10.53 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	13.08%	10.78%Sep 25, 2022	−2.30 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	13.08%	7.67%Nov 24, 2022	−5.42 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	13.08%	2.26%Feb 22, 2023	−10.82 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	13.08%	2.55%Aug 26, 2023	−10.53 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	13.08%	1.54%Aug 25, 2025	−11.54 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Aug 25, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 10.78% at Sep 25, 2022, a change of −2.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 24, 2022, a change of −5.42 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.26% at Feb 22, 2023, a change of −10.82 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 1.54% at Aug 25, 2025, a change of −11.54 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 25, 2027.

What was said around it

home prices are starting to fall buyers haven't been this pessimistic in a decade the housing recession will probably end up being more severe what's up Graham it's guys here so as much as we joke about how Millennials are patiently waiting for the real estate market to collapse to be able to buy their first two-bedroom in Phoenix for $800,000 it finally happened housing prices have started to fall with the latest data pointing to a housing recession as prices soften demand slows down and sales collapse at the fastest Pace in almost two decades not to mentioned Michael bur just shared yet another cryptic warning on Twitter just moments before he sold his entire portfolio

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

More on House prices