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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Nov 30, 2022, at 5:05 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the general sentiment indicates the housing market is likely going to continue slowing down throughout 2023”
Watch at 5:05THE FED JUST RESET THE MARKET | Recession Cancelled
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

7.67%

Nov 30, 2022

Reading at close

5%

Nov 30, 2023

Change

−2.67 pp

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and 5.00% at Nov 30, 2023, a change of −2.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band7.67%5.76%Dec 30, 2022−1.91 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.67%2.26%Feb 28, 2023−5.40 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.67%−0.27%May 29, 2023−7.94 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.67%5%Nov 30, 2023−2.67 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.67%1.31%Nov 29, 2025−6.36 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Nov 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and 5.76% at Dec 30, 2022, a change of −1.91 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and 2.26% at Feb 28, 2023, a change of −5.40 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 29, 2023, a change of −7.94 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and 5.00% at Nov 30, 2023, a change of −2.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 7.67% at the start of the window and 1.31% at Nov 29, 2025, a change of −6.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 29, 2027.

What was said around it

it's no surprise that throughout most of the country it's simply an effective supply and demand and if buyers no longer have the purchasing power they once did then either sellers will have to keep their home on the market for longer or reduce it to a price that someone is willing to pay and that's what we're beginning to see in this case values have fallen an average of one percent in September nearly 3 30 percent of sellers have cut the price and fun fact but Thursdays are the most common day for a price reduction the more you know anyway the general sentiment indicates the housing market is likely going to continue slowing down throughout 2023 and in terms of how the Federal Reserve is responding there are a few factors that are beginning to work against them and no it's not robot landlords who are buying up houses instead we have number one China's protests initially this began from the zero covet policy where lockdowns and tight regulation were strictly enforced this resulted in delayed manufacturing and production higher costs and in return higher inflation here in the United States however many of their citizens began to protest these restrictions and even though it's too early

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed