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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Mar 25, 2026, at 14:36 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“That's why I'm beginning to think that you can score some good deals right now if the seller's reasonable and is willing to compensate you for the market falling over the next few years.”
Watch at 14:36WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Within band so far · 90 days

Reading when said

0.69%

Mar 25, 2026

Reading at close

1.55%

Jun 23, 2026

Change

+0.86 pp

House prices stood at 0.69% at the start of the window and 1.55% at Jun 23, 2026, a change of +0.86 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.69%0.93%Apr 24, 2026+0.24 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.69%1.55%Jun 23, 2026+0.86 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 21, 2026——
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 25, 2027——
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 24, 2029——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 24, 2031——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 0.69% at the start of the window and 0.93% at Apr 24, 2026, a change of +0.24 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 0.69% at the start of the window and 1.55% at Jun 23, 2026, a change of +0.86 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 21, 2026.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 25, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 24, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 24, 2031.

What was said around it

much equity for prices to meaningfully fall. Although, I do think the era of easy money in real estate is over. Like really for the last few decades, you could buy any property in any condition for any price and long-term you'd be just fine. But, those days are long gone. In today's market, you really have to do your research. Check the location, make sure the price you're paying is worth it. Look at your entire cost and determine how long you're going to keep it for and if it even makes sense to buy. That's why I'm beginning to think that you can score some good deals right now if the seller's reasonable and is willing to compensate you for the market falling over the next few years. Look at builders. Some of them are throwing up to 14% in incentives at you. And for this reason, it might make sense if you have a long-term outlook to begin to put some feelers out there. Now, I also think if you're not buying, there is zero shame in renting, saving the difference, and investing that in an index fund instead while the market begins to normalize. In the big picture though, this is really one of the moments where the headlines sound a lot scarier than the reality actually is. Because yes,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed