Graham Stephan: House prices — around 5%

Said on Jul 20, 2022, at 8:14 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“with inventory still remaining near record lows, believe it or not, prices are still expected to rise by another 5% year-over-year.”
Watch at 8:14Why I'm Selling
PredictionHouse prices— around 5%Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 15.9% year on year in Jul 2022 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 5.0%.

What was said around it

that out of the 392 markets they looked at, 45 of them had a greater than 50% chance of seeing a decline over the next 12 months. Which, just for reference, a month ago only 26 markets fell into that category. As you're about to see, even though some areas show some risk of a decline, the most susceptible areas are the ones which saw the biggest increases including Boise, Idaho, Bend, Oregon, Fresno, California, and Lake Havasu. However, just because they deem them as overvalued doesn't necessarily mean they're going to drop. And with inventory still remaining near record lows, believe it or not, prices are still expected to rise by another 5% year-over-year. Of course, in terms of the good news for home buyers, it does appear as though more inventory is coming on the market as sellers list their homes. Price cuts are becoming slightly more common with 11 and 1/2% seeing a reduction and home buyer demand is down 14% year-over-year, giving buyers a little bit more leverage than before. On the rental side though, prices are actually still increasing and catching up with the cost of everything else. Like according to Redfin, median rents rose 15% year-over-year above $2,000 a month for

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed