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Andrei Jikh: House prices will fall

Said on Aug 29, 2022, at 3:19 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“nationally speaking inventory levels have climbed to the highest levels that we've seen since 2009 and that suggests there's going to be a lot more pain ahead”
Watch at 3:19The Recession Just Got WORSE
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

13.08%

Aug 29, 2022

Reading at close

2.55%

Aug 29, 2023

Change

−10.53 pp

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −10.53 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%10.78%Sep 28, 2022−2.30 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%7.67%Nov 27, 2022−5.42 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%2.26%Feb 25, 2023−10.82 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%2.55%Aug 29, 2023−10.53 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%1.54%Aug 28, 2025−11.54 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 28, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 10.78% at Sep 28, 2022, a change of −2.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 27, 2022, a change of −5.42 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.26% at Feb 25, 2023, a change of −10.82 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −10.53 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 1.54% at Aug 28, 2025, a change of −11.54 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 28, 2027.

What was said around it

cost basis because it's extremely risky now when it comes to real estate mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed home loan have gone up to an average of five and a half percent which is insane and sellers have become a little crazy because between the week of august 20th and august 25th the average list price went up 14.4 percent but that's also why homes have been sitting an average of four days longer and new listings have actually decreased 12 which suggests that sellers want to wait and see what happens to the market but nationally speaking inventory levels have climbed to the highest levels that we've seen since 2009 and that suggests there's going to be a lot more pain ahead so if you're in the market to buy a house right now i would say wait a little longer and by a little i mean a lot now as far as the stock market goes though it's also down a lot thanks to what jerome powell said which is thanks to what's called the pce the personal consumption expenditures i don't know why they give them such fancy names and why can't they just call it the price change of the stuff we buy because that's what it is now remember in june we set a 40-year record high of 6.8 now remember we're always one

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

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“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed