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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Aug 2, 2021, at 10:53 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“instead I do think we're beginning to see the housing market start to return to normal with more Tory coming on the market along with prices rising in a somewhat slower rate”
Watch at 10:53The Housing Market Just Went ABSURD
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

19.93%

Aug 2, 2021

Reading at close

13.08%

Aug 2, 2022

Change

−6.85 pp

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 2, 2022, a change of −6.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%19.57%Sep 1, 2021−0.36 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%19.06%Oct 31, 2021−0.87 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%19.27%Jan 29, 2022−0.66 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%13.08%Aug 2, 2022−6.85 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%4.34%Aug 1, 2024−15.59 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%2.04%Aug 1, 2026−17.90 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 19.57% at Sep 1, 2021, a change of −0.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 19.06% at Oct 31, 2021, a change of −0.87 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 19.27% at Jan 29, 2022, a change of −0.66 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 2, 2022, a change of −6.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 4.34% at Aug 1, 2024, a change of −15.59 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 2.04% at Aug 1, 2026, a change of −17.90 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

only applies to tenants at immediate risk of eviction and does not cover past debts or loans taken out to keep current with your rent so even though rental relief can be available in your area it's best to check with your specific County because every place is going to be different so overall even though we have quite a few new changes taking place over the next month it does not appear that the expiring eviction and foreclosure memorandum are going to have a meaningful impact on the entire real estate market instead I do think we're beginning to see the housing market start to return to normal with more Tory coming on the market along with prices rising in a somewhat slower rate to me that's a signal that perhaps buyers are reaching a point where they simply can't afford to pay anymore and as the cost of materials begins to come down and normalize we should start to see more consistent pricing throughout the market now for wealthy Millennials it was said that the shutdown allowed them to save way more money than usual which Business Insider says helped Drive the 2020 housing boom and worsen the crisis but that could only last for so long until eventually things slow down I have a feeling

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed