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Andrei Jikh: House prices will fall

Said on Aug 22, 2022, at 13:45 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the central bank has no plans to slow down interest rate increases which means the real estate market is probably going to suffer a little bit more this year”
Watch at 13:45How To Make Passive Income: $100 A Day With Dividends
PredictionHouse priceswill fallby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

13.08%

Aug 22, 2022

Reading at close

2.55%

Aug 22, 2023

Change

−10.53 pp

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Aug 22, 2023, a change of −10.53 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%10.78%Sep 21, 2022−2.30 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%7.67%Nov 20, 2022−5.42 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%2.26%Feb 18, 2023−10.82 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%2.55%Aug 22, 2023−10.53 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%1.54%Aug 21, 2025−11.54 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 21, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.08%5.76%Dec 31, 2022−7.32 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 10.78% at Sep 21, 2022, a change of −2.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 20, 2022, a change of −5.42 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.26% at Feb 18, 2023, a change of −10.82 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Aug 22, 2023, a change of −10.53 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 1.54% at Aug 21, 2025, a change of −11.54 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 21, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

House prices stood at 13.08% at the start of the window and 5.76% at Dec 31, 2022, a change of −7.32 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

the entire real estate market are now getting canceled and that is the fastest rate of cancellations since the roni rhony started now nationwide inventory levels are starting to climb and that's why the nahb the national association of homebuilders just recently declared that the housing market is already in a recession and falling fast which is why their confidence metric is down for the eighth straight month in a row and also last week the market found out in the latest fomc minutes meeting with pogba powell that the central bank has no plans to slow down interest rate increases which means the real estate market is probably going to suffer a little bit more this year but what's crazy is that dividends paid out in the residential sector or reit stocks is actually up more than 10 this year and mortgage back reads the dividends have increased more than 15 this year and that means that even though we're in a technical recession dividends in relation to the real estate market are still up which is why proving my point dividends can be a really great way to diversify your income even in tough times which is why i'm still reinvesting in them as always have a wonderful rest of your day

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed