Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Sep 17, 2025, at 9:03 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“realistically, housing prices will continue to soften as more”
Watch at 9:03BREAKING: Federal Reserve JUST SLASHED RATES – Massive Pivot Ahead!
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Within band so far · 180 days

Reading when said

1.28%

Sep 17, 2025

Reading at close

0.69%

Mar 16, 2026

Change

−0.59 pp

House prices stood at 1.28% at the start of the window and 0.69% at Mar 16, 2026, a change of −0.59 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.28%1.3%Oct 17, 2025+0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.28%1.31%Dec 16, 2025+0.04 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.28%0.69%Mar 16, 2026−0.59 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 17, 2026——
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 16, 2028——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 16, 2030——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 1.28% at the start of the window and 1.30% at Oct 17, 2025, a change of +0.03 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 1.28% at the start of the window and 1.31% at Dec 16, 2025, a change of +0.04 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 1.28% at the start of the window and 0.69% at Mar 16, 2026, a change of −0.59 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 17, 2026.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2030.

What was said around it

which are dictated by market supply and demand. That's why there's a good chance that mortgages will remain relatively unchanged for the near future, unless the Federal Reserve starts buying the 10-year Treasury yield in an effort to pump more money into the market and drive those yields down, which at this point, nothing would surprise me anymore. Plus, if they actually did do that, it's probably a sign that investors have lost faith in the US economy. and uh it's a bad sign. Anyway, barring the Federal Reserve purposely stepping in to bail out the housing market, realistically, housing prices will continue to soften as more inventory gets listed on the market and prices might begin to decline relative to inflation. On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash. But a softening is definitely something that's in the cards. Although, a bigger problem right now might actually be the stock market. Unfortunately, we have a few variables all affecting stock market performance with the first being treasuries. Like I mentioned earlier, for the foreseeable future, the long-term Treasury yield is going to act as the barometer for

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed