Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: House prices will rise to 5%

Said on Nov 1, 2023, at 9:20 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in addition to that Morgan Stanley revised their forecast and they now believe that home prices could rise another 5% year-over-year”
Watch at 9:20BREAKING: The FED Pauses Rates, Housing Declines, Recession Cancelled
PredictionHouse priceswill rise to 5%
What happened
Relayed

Attributed to Morgan Stanley — not scored

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Attributed to Morgan Stanley — not scored

What was said around it

been since 1984 in terms of where this might go over the next year Zillow just released their updated forecast and in it they believe that that home prices will see another 2.1% increase through September of 2024 their reasoning is that the higher interest rates go the less likely people are to sell their homes since the majority of homeowners are locked in with rates under 4% this suggests that we'll continue to see very little inventory and from what does come on the market there's still enough buyer demand to keep the price high in addition to that Morgan Stanley revised their forecast and they now believe that home prices could rise another 5% year-over-year given how many sell are reluctant to give up their existing mortgage a managing director of Goldman Sachs also went on record to say that absent any negative shocks to the broader economy that would either boost excess supply of homes in the market or fuel an uptick and unemployment we continue to expect home prices to rise at a slow pace with his estimate that we'll see a 3 and half% increase by the end of 2024 however if you do need to move it does seem as though home builders are the ones offering the biggest incentives for example

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed