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Graham Stephan: House prices — around 2%

Said on Nov 2, 2017, at 10:40 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“it instead appreciating at a very modest maybe two to four maybe two to five percent depending on the area overall annually and I think that's the right place to be and I think that's a healthy market”
Watch at 10:40To everyone wondering “When the Real Estate market will crash??” - my prediction
PredictionHouse prices— around 2%Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. House prices stood at 5.8% year on year in Nov 2017 (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

What was said around it

see this as something that the market is gonna crash what I see instead happening a lot more homes are coming in the market a lot fewer people are there to buy those homes just because there's so many available and I think it's slowly gonna stagnate the real estate market it's on a crash I don't think anything is gonna be dropping like ten percent in price but I do see the market not appreciating at like ten fifteen percent a year like it has been which is just absurd and that's not healthy I see it instead appreciating at a very modest maybe two to four maybe two to five percent depending on the area overall annually and I think that's the right place to be and I think that's a healthy market now obviously some markets are going to appreciate way more if you try to like time the next like Venice Beach certainly doable maybe you can make fifteen twenty percent if you buy the right property the price in the right area but I think as a whole we're probably gonna see much smaller appreciation and I think things are gonna start to take a little bit longer to sell the next thing I want to talk about is interest rates because those do have an impact on real estate prices now what's kind of

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed