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Coin Bureau: House prices will fall

Said on Apr 10, 2025, at 16:02 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“It's only   in the longer term that housing prices would  start to come down”
Watch at 16:02Mortgage Rates Set to Soar? Inside the Fannie & Freddie Shakeup
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

2.87%

Apr 10, 2025

Reading at close

0.93%

Apr 10, 2026

Change

−1.94 pp

House prices stood at 2.87% at the start of the window and 0.93% at Apr 10, 2026, a change of −1.94 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.87%2.36%May 10, 2025−0.51 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.87%1.64%Jul 9, 2025−1.23 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.87%1.3%Oct 7, 2025−1.57 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.87%0.93%Apr 10, 2026−1.94 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Apr 9, 2028——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Apr 9, 2030——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 2.87% at the start of the window and 2.36% at May 10, 2025, a change of −0.51 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 2.87% at the start of the window and 1.64% at Jul 9, 2025, a change of −1.23 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 2.87% at the start of the window and 1.30% at Oct 7, 2025, a change of −1.57 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 2.87% at the start of the window and 0.93% at Apr 10, 2026, a change of −1.94 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 9, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 9, 2030.

What was said around it

more when the US government stops borrowing  much more money using the short-term bonds Taken   together this all suggests that long-term interest  rates will continue rising in the coming years   along with mortgage rates If they do then the  effects on the housing market will be almost   identical to the privatization of Fanny and  Freddy Lower housing prices but also more   expensive mortgages Again in the short term  this could mean housing prices staying high   while mortgage rates rise which is almost exactly  what we've been seeing in recent months It's only   in the longer term that housing prices would  start to come down which will be good for the   35% of Americans who don't own homes already uh  the remaining 65% will see the values of their   properties fall while also continuing to pay a  big loan The silver lining is that by the time   Fanny May and Freddy Mack are privatized  the worst effects of the housing market   would have already happened because of other  unrelated factors As such the primary impact   of privatization would be that it prevents  a new housing bubble from forming at least   until new government programs are introduced  that start blowing the bubble

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed