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Graham Stephan: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Jul 25, 2022, at 11:35 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“But from all the data that we're beginning to see, I would not be surprised if some markets begin to soften and the rate of returns begins to return back to somewhat of a new normal.”
Watch at 11:35The Biggest Housing Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming
PredictionHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

What was said around it

single piece of data that credibly says that foreclosures are up by 700%. So overall, in my own opinion, I would not be surprised if nominal values continued going even higher while real values stayed flat or even saw a bit of a decline. For real estate investors, that could actually make a pretty good opportunity for rising rents. But for everybody else, my advice is pretty simple. Just buy what you're comfortably able to afford when you're ready on a home that you plan to keep for at least 7 to 10 years. But from all the data that we're beginning to see, I would not be surprised if some markets begin to soften and the rate of returns begins to return back to somewhat of a new normal. It's nothing to me that spells out a disaster. And depending on the deal you get, hey, you can actually make some money. But you know what? What do I know? I'm just a talking head here on YouTube. So, with that said, guys, thank you so much for watching. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed