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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Oct 11, 2023, at 13:11 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“long-term housing prices have proven to be fairly resilient and because of that the longer you wait the more likely it is that you're going to come out ahead”
Watch at 13:11Renting vs Buying A Home: Which Is ACTUALLY Cheaper?
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

4.67%

Oct 11, 2023

Reading at close

3.6%

Oct 10, 2024

Change

−1.07 pp

House prices stood at 4.67% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Oct 10, 2024, a change of −1.07 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.67%5%Nov 10, 2023+0.33 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.67%6.06%Jan 9, 2024+1.39 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.67%6.44%Apr 8, 2024+1.77 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.67%3.6%Oct 10, 2024−1.07 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Oct 10, 2026——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Oct 9, 2028——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 4.67% at the start of the window and 5.00% at Nov 10, 2023, a change of +0.33 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 4.67% at the start of the window and 6.06% at Jan 9, 2024, a change of +1.39 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 4.67% at the start of the window and 6.44% at Apr 8, 2024, a change of +1.77 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 4.67% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Oct 10, 2024, a change of −1.07 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 10, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 9, 2028.

What was said around it

very well continue going higher even outpacing that of home ownership third you also have no freedom to customize the home as you like this means no painting walls crazy colors no building your own patio deck no redoing all the landscaping and adding sculptures to fit the aesthetic although just like there are some negatives we also have to talk about some of the positives when it comes to owning first long-term owning still tends to be the better choice even though the market could certainly go down in the short term long-term housing prices have proven to be fairly resilient and because of that the longer you wait the more likely it is that you're going to come out ahead second by owning a home you're going to be locking in your monthly cost until the home is eventually paid off now even though things like property taxes insurance and ongoing maintenance is going to get more expensive as time goes on your fixed monthly costs are going to be the exact same and third when you buy a home there's just this psychological element of the home being yours this one is kind of hard to explain but there's a sense of Freedom that comes along with owning your own home being able to do whatever you

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed