Said on Nov 13, 2025, at 15:50 in the video.
“So, realistically, the home you're buying with a 50-year mortgage will not be $400,000. It'll be about $440,000, which means the spreadsheet math advantage disappears.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
when you're way past retirement. So, yes, even though the numbers on the spreadsheet say a 50-year mortgage actually works better if you treat money like a robot for 50 years straight, but the moment you realize you're a human, it's probably not going to happen. But all of this math actually even gets blown up anyway because the moment you introduce the 50-year mortgage, remember, home prices adjust upward. If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate. So, realistically, the home you're buying with a 50-year mortgage will not be $400,000. It'll be about $440,000, which means the spreadsheet math advantage disappears. So, ironically, none of this actually matters because the market prices it all away eventually anyway. So, if you made it this far, here's what I think. Both mortgages can make a lot of financial sense for different reasons, and neither one is right or wrong. The 50-year mortgage is just a tool. If you're an absolute machine with your money, and you treat investing like it's consistent, it's automatic, and mathematically, assuming all else is equal, the 50-year mortgage can work out in your favor. The way really
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Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise
“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”
Jul 22, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”
Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
