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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Aug 6, 2021, at 9:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we could continue to see more home buying demand from both Millennials and gen Z over the coming years further boosting up prices”
Watch at 9:02The Housing Market Is Sinking
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

19.93%

Aug 6, 2021

Reading at close

13.08%

Aug 6, 2022

Change

−6.85 pp

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 6, 2022, a change of −6.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%19.57%Sep 5, 2021−0.36 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%18.83%Nov 4, 2021−1.11 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.93%20.04%Feb 2, 2022+0.11 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%13.08%Aug 6, 2022−6.85 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%4.34%Aug 5, 2024−15.59 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.93%2.04%Aug 5, 2026−17.90 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 19.57% at Sep 5, 2021, a change of −0.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 18.83% at Nov 4, 2021, a change of −1.11 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 20.04% at Feb 2, 2022, a change of +0.11 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 6, 2022, a change of −6.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 4.34% at Aug 5, 2024, a change of −15.59 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 19.93% at the start of the window and 2.04% at Aug 5, 2026, a change of −17.90 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

there's still no shortage of buyers out there willing to pay whatever it takes to get a house the third even though building materials are also coming down in price they still have a long ways to go that's because supply chain shortages still have an impact on how much material can be produced and because of that economists say that demand for lumber is expected to hold up well for quite some time although Supply should rebound and the price of lumber should sharply decline deined by the end of 2022 as Lumber Imports increase fourth we could continue to see more home buying demand from both Millennials and gen Z over the coming years further boosting up prices like it was reported that this year Millennials have dominated the home buying Market but soon approaching is Gen Z and with 72% of them saying that they eventually want to buy a home that could mean eventually even more buyers lining up to place offers and fifth the risks of a new shutdown could potentially hold the recovery and limit the amount of new inventory coming on the market that's because the longer our economy is restricted the lower interest rates will stay the less material can be produced the less people want to move

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed