Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices — around 25%

Said on Mar 23, 2022, at 4:01 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the chief Economist and founder of Pantheon macroeconomics projects that existing home sales will drop roughly 25 percent from the annual pace of 6 billion set in February to four and a half billion by the end of summer”
Watch at 4:01It’s Over: Why The Housing Market Is Screwed
PredictionHouse prices— around 25%
What happened
Relayed

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

might Bust or in other words they lowered interest rates to boost and maintain growth of which they were not seeing in a rising interest rate environment and as you would expect not even six months later median home prices hit another record high while housing inventory hit a record low but now that we're seeing something similar with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates back to where we saw in 2018. could that lead to another housing market slowdown with prices expected to fall well the chief Economist and founder of Pantheon macroeconomics projects that existing home sales will drop roughly 25 percent from the annual pace of 6 billion set in February to four and a half billion by the end of summer on top of that he says that the housing market is in the early stages of the substantial downshift in activity which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices starting perhaps as soon as the spring part of this is backed by the recent drop of mortgage demand which slowed to its lowest point since 2019 with demand for refinancing having dropped nearly 50 percent from a year ago signaling that higher interest rates are putting more pressure on buyers and as a result

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed