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Graham Stephan: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Jul 15, 2026, at 14:35 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”
Watch at 14:35BREAKING: China’s ENTIRE Housing Market Just Collapsed
PredictionHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.

What was said around it

the debt structure. The China's buyers paid upfront for homes that didn't exist to developers who were leveraged out the wazoo. Meanwhile, American homeowners are sitting on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, most of them locked in under 4% with record home equity, which is just a fancy way of saying that nobody is forced to sell. And that's why prices are just grinding sideways. Now that said, what is happening in the United States is what economists are calling the two Americas. With this, the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling. Even the national numbers are split because list prices are falling at a record pace, while the actual sale prices just hit a record high of 440,000 because the homes that do sell are more increasingly just the expensive ones. That's why no, we're not facing anywhere near what China's going through, but we're also not seeing the same type of market in 2021 where prices just kept going higher. So in terms of my own thoughts and what I think is going to happen next, here's what you need to

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will rise

“Meanwhile, prices are expected to rise throughout a lot of the more affordable areas in the Midwest.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed