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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Jun 26, 2020, at 13:19 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I have a feeling that values are going to continue to go up like this until people feel comfortable listing their homes again and having people walk through them.”
Watch at 13:19Evicting Tenants - My Thoughts
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.32%

Jun 26, 2020

Reading at close

18.67%

Jun 26, 2021

Change

+14.35 pp

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 18.67% at Jun 26, 2021, a change of +14.35 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.32%4.69%Jul 26, 2020+0.36 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.32%6.88%Sep 24, 2020+2.55 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.32%10.25%Dec 23, 2020+5.93 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.32%18.67%Jun 26, 2021+14.35 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect4.32%0.02%Jun 26, 2023−4.30 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect4.32%1.93%Jun 25, 2025−2.39 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 4.69% at Jul 26, 2020, a change of +0.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 6.88% at Sep 24, 2020, a change of +2.55 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 10.25% at Dec 23, 2020, a change of +5.93 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 18.67% at Jun 26, 2021, a change of +14.35 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 0.02% at Jun 26, 2023, a change of −4.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 4.32% at the start of the window and 1.93% at Jun 25, 2025, a change of −2.39 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

have a feeling I don't see housing dropping too much because of it. And now finally, in terms of actually buying a home, now is an absolutely crazy market. Like right now, I'm on the lookout to maybe buy another property, and I cannot believe how competitive it is right now. Like a lot of the properties that I've inquired about have all had multiple offers within days of being listed way over asking price, and a lot of that has to do with a lack of inventory on the market and historically low interest rates. Now, I have a feeling that values are going to continue to go up like this until people feel comfortable listing their homes again and having people walk through them. And then maybe at that point, things will begin to cool down again. But until then, we could be looking at a really competitive next few months for housing as long as interest rates continue to stay low, which they will, and as long as you smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. So, with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it. As always, make sure to destroy the subscribe button and notification bell so YouTube notifies you anytime I post a video. Also, feel free to add

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed