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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Jul 25, 2022, at 11:12 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“So overall, in my own opinion, I would not be surprised if nominal values continued going even higher while real values stayed flat or even saw a bit of a decline.”
Watch at 11:12The Biggest Housing Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

15.86%

Jul 25, 2022

Reading at close

0.88%

Jul 25, 2023

Change

−14.98 pp

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 25, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%13.08%Aug 24, 2022−2.78 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%9.21%Oct 23, 2022−6.65 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%3.85%Jan 21, 2023−12.01 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%0.88%Jul 25, 2023−14.98 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect15.86%1.64%Jul 24, 2025−14.22 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jul 24, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 24, 2022, a change of −2.78 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 23, 2022, a change of −6.65 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 3.85% at Jan 21, 2023, a change of −12.01 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 25, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 1.64% at Jul 24, 2025, a change of −14.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 24, 2027.

What was said around it

payments while you then wait another 3 years to make its way through the system is rather unlikely in a way that would make any meaningful difference on the market. Not to mention less than half a percent of homeowners with a mortgage are more than 90 days later in their payment compared to almost 5% at the peak of the housing bubble. So from everything that I could see, there is no risk of foreclosures flooding the market. And I cannot find a single piece of data that credibly says that foreclosures are up by 700%. So overall, in my own opinion, I would not be surprised if nominal values continued going even higher while real values stayed flat or even saw a bit of a decline. For real estate investors, that could actually make a pretty good opportunity for rising rents. But for everybody else, my advice is pretty simple. Just buy what you're comfortably able to afford when you're ready on a home that you plan to keep for at least 7 to 10 years. But from all the data that we're beginning to see, I would not be surprised if some markets begin to soften and the rate of returns begins to return back to somewhat of a new normal. It's nothing to me that spells out a disaster. And depending

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed