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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall to 5%

Said on Dec 12, 2022, at 11:24 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I would not be surprised if home prices did end up dropping between 5 to 10%.”
Watch at 11:24It Started: Housing Prices Are Collapsing
PredictionHouse priceswill fall to 5%Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

3.85%

Dec 12, 2022

Reading at close

5.43%

Dec 12, 2023

Change

+1.57 pp

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Dec 12, 2023. Its low over that window was −0.3% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%3.85%Jan 11, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%0.88%Mar 12, 2023−2.98 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%0.02%Jun 10, 2023−3.83 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%5.43%Dec 12, 2023+1.57 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.85%1.31%Dec 11, 2025−2.54 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Dec 11, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Jan 11, 2023. Its low over that window was 3.9% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: 90 days

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Mar 12, 2023. Its low over that window was 0.9% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: 180 days

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Jun 10, 2023. Its low over that window was −0.3% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: 1 year

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Dec 12, 2023. Its low over that window was −0.3% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: 3 years

The call was for house prices to reach 5.0% between Dec 12, 2022 and Dec 11, 2025. Its low over that window was −0.3% (CSUSHPINSA, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 11, 2027.

What was said around it

those borrowers loses their job and they can't afford to pay the mortgage anymore, then yes, they do risk falling into foreclosure regardless of their interest rate. But when you zoom out in the big picture, it's reported that fewer than 1% of homes mortgaged in 2021 are underwater with only 3% having limited equity. That suggests that even if the market declines further, we're not going to enter a market where prices drop 35% across the board like we saw in 2008. Now, personally, as someone who's worked full-time in the real estate market for now 14 years, I would not be surprised if home prices did end up dropping between 5 to 10%. I wouldn't be surprised if highly euphoric markets saw a drop of 20 to 25% only because they've gone up so much so quickly. But, I don't think this points to a cataclysmic crash to any degree. And if anything happens, I think it's going to be a lot more mild. The way I see it, I think this is going to lead to some pretty good buying opportunities throughout the next year. And I'm keeping some cash on the sidelines to buy a commercial office or warehouse space whenever a good deal comes up, if one comes up. I'm hoping I could find one, but we'll see. For everybody

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed