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Andrei Jikh: House prices will fall

Said on May 13, 2022, at 1:51 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the only thing that's not down is real estate and that's only because real estate moves really really slow but the pain is coming there as well”
Watch at 1:51The Everything Crash Is Here | Why It Will Get Worse
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

20.03%

May 13, 2022

Reading at close

−0.27%

May 13, 2023

Change

−20.30 pp

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 13, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band20.03%18.14%Jun 12, 2022−1.89 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%13.08%Aug 11, 2022−6.95 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%7.67%Nov 9, 2022−12.36 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%−0.27%May 13, 2023−20.30 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%2.36%May 12, 2025−17.67 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 12, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 18.14% at Jun 12, 2022, a change of −1.89 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 11, 2022, a change of −6.95 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 9, 2022, a change of −12.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 13, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 2.36% at May 12, 2025, a change of −17.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 12, 2027.

What was said around it

it magically wither away into less than 10 000 you'd probably cry be right back the lesson i learned from this one stock is not to chase the hot new and exciting thing in ipos even though i believe that coinbase will come back and it's a great company i just wish it didn't take me seventy thousand dollars to learn that lesson but it did so here we are now let me show you my crypto portfolio which is so much worse here it is this number used to say 1.2 million dollars so i'm down over a hundred percent on my crypto portfolio the only thing that's not down is real estate and that's only because real estate moves really really slow but the pain is coming there as well so that's what's going on and i know i seem way too happy considering the circumstances but the reason that i don't let this affect how i feel and how i invest is because i try to understand why this is happening now i can't sit here and tell you what's going to happen next because i can't predict the future but i can show you historical data that shows what happens in times like these because the more we understand why this is happening the easier it is to continue investing and staying the course so let's get right into

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed