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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Apr 11, 2018, at 10:18 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we're 14 to 20 percent below our pre recession Peaks adjusted for inflation this leads me to think that we still have some upward room for growth”
Watch at 10:18Are we in a REAL ESTATE BUBBLE?!
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.55%

Apr 11, 2018

Reading at close

3.54%

Apr 11, 2019

Change

−3.01 pp

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 3.54% at Apr 11, 2019, a change of −3.01 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.55%6.47%May 11, 2018−0.08 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.55%5.79%Jul 10, 2018−0.76 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.55%5.31%Oct 8, 2018−1.24 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.55%3.54%Apr 11, 2019−3.01 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.55%14.38%Apr 10, 2021+7.83 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.55%0.07%Apr 10, 2023−6.49 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 6.47% at May 11, 2018, a change of −0.08 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 5.79% at Jul 10, 2018, a change of −0.76 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 5.31% at Oct 8, 2018, a change of −1.24 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 3.54% at Apr 11, 2019, a change of −3.01 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 14.38% at Apr 10, 2021, a change of +7.83 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 6.55% at the start of the window and 0.07% at Apr 10, 2023, a change of −6.49 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

income and they have the credit to actually purchase a property in the first place and a 2008 like crash is just not feasible under those conditions where people are putting that much equity into a property have the credit they have the income and they're taking out fifteen to thirty year loans at extremely low interest rates these are not the type of people who are going to be foreclosing on their properties so with subprime lending like that out of the way here is what I see now what's interesting here is that first of all we're 14 to 20 percent below our pre recession Peaks adjusted for inflation this leads me to think that we still have some upward room for growth even though we've hit our all-time highs we haven't really when you adjust for inflation that really does end up putting it in perspective now the second thing I see is it interest rates are still at historic lows and even though we all know interest rates are going to be going up at some point there's a huge long term advantage right now of buying and locking in a low interest rate this creates a huge sense of urgency to buy real estate now like we haven't really seen before which should end up bolstering real estate prices

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed