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Andrei Jikh: House prices will rise

Said on Oct 1, 2021, at 12:36 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“homes have grown sixty percent while our incomes grew only twenty four percent in that same time frame and i would argue that gap is only going to continue to get bigger”
Watch at 12:36BIGGEST SCAM IN REAL ESTATE
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

19.06%

Oct 1, 2021

Reading at close

9.21%

Oct 1, 2022

Change

−9.85 pp

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 1, 2022, a change of −9.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.06%19.06%Oct 31, 20210.00 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.06%18.87%Dec 30, 2021−0.19 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band19.06%20.87%Mar 30, 2022+1.80 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.06%9.21%Oct 1, 2022−9.85 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect19.06%4%Sep 30, 2024−15.07 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 30, 2026——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 19.06% at Oct 31, 2021, a change of 0.00 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 18.87% at Dec 30, 2021, a change of −0.19 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 20.87% at Mar 30, 2022, a change of +1.80 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 1, 2022, a change of −9.85 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 19.06% at the start of the window and 4.00% at Sep 30, 2024, a change of −15.07 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 30, 2026.

What was said around it

is becoming unaffordable is because a lack of supply and that wage growth is not growing at the same pace as asset growth so in january 2015 the average hourly rate was about 25 an hour or 52 000 a year now that same year in 2015 the average home cost about a hundred ninety one thousand dollars but if you fast forward to this year the average hourly rate has grown to only thirty one dollars or sixty five thousand a year meanwhile the average home has grown to three hundred seven thousand dollars this is crazy homes have grown sixty percent while our incomes grew only twenty four percent in that same time frame and i would argue that gap is only going to continue to get bigger and the reason that homes are becoming so unaffordable is because supply is not keeping up with demand according to redfin's data we're building only six homes for every 10 families that need them so if every generation needs to get into a bidding frenzy for an affordable house eventually housing becomes unaffordable so as entertaining as it was to watch that tick tock video i don't think it's true yet maybe 75 years from now when corporations start to buy up all the real estate with leveraged money and then package

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed