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Andrei Jikh: House prices will fall

Said on May 23, 2022, at 2:17 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“going forward i don't think that kind of growth is going to be sustainable and i think the market has already started to soften”
Watch at 2:17The Market Just Peaked | How To Stay Safe
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

20.03%

May 23, 2022

Reading at close

−0.27%

May 23, 2023

Change

−20.30 pp

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 23, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band20.03%18.14%Jun 22, 2022−1.89 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%13.08%Aug 21, 2022−6.95 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%7.67%Nov 19, 2022−12.36 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%−0.27%May 23, 2023−20.30 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct20.03%2.36%May 22, 2025−17.67 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 22, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 18.14% at Jun 22, 2022, a change of −1.89 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 21, 2022, a change of −6.95 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 19, 2022, a change of −12.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 23, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 2.36% at May 22, 2025, a change of −17.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 22, 2027.

What was said around it

andre jack hope you're doing well come for the finance and stay for the data so once again i have enough skin in the game with real estate to know a little bit of what i'm talking about but i don't have 20 years of extensive experience 15 rental units and an agenda to prove to you how real estate is going to go bananas my only qualification is that i bought my first house last year in february i bought another house this year at a 2.6 adjustable rate mortgage so technically i already made money on the loan as well as the house but going forward i don't think that kind of growth is going to be sustainable and i think the market has already started to soften so i wanted to show you some data that helps support that observation the most obvious observation that i found is that i don't think anyone could have predicted just how crazy real estate would explode in value for example before the recession in 2020 the median home value was 329 000 today it's closer to 429 000 which is a 30.4 increase in just the last two years which is especially crazy when you remember that real estate should typically grow anywhere between three to five percent in a normal year but looking back at everything

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

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Pending

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Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed