What was said
“he thinks that inflation-adjusted home prices will likely be a lot lower in a few years but that's not certain”Watch at 10:05It Started: Home Prices Are Falling 50%
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will fall
Said on Oct 7, 2022, at 10:05 in the video.
The window it was checked over
This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
relocation to more rural areas driving an estimated 60 percent of the home price surge but as he explains that's not the entire picture because office spaces are continuing to do just as well so that leaves one explanation he theorizes that since anxiety and depression rates more than quadrupled during the pandemic as a way to cope many Americans purchased a home to add more structure to their lives during a time where they felt the psychological pressure to lock in record low rates with a 30-year mortgage in terms of where the future lies he thinks that inflation-adjusted home prices will likely be a lot lower in a few years but that's not certain of course from my own experience when it comes to mortgages I absolutely agree throughout the pandemic I saw some of my smartest and wealthiest clients taking on as many loans as they could because the rates were too low to pass up and even for myself I was able to refinance two and a half million dollars with the mortgages at 2.875 fixed for 30 years which essentially means that I'm getting paid to borrow money but now that's not so much the case overall though it's difficult to determine exactly what's going to happen one side argues that
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on House prices
Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise
“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year
Pending
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”
Jul 22, 2026
Not scored
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed
Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”
Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed