As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 78 calls about interest rates that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED. At one year: 12 correct, 10 incorrect, 1 still open. The other 55 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
78
33 up · 20 down
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
12 Correct 10 Incorrect
plus 0 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
1
Windows not yet closed
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. Grey bands are recessions.
93 predictions in all, newest first: 78 own, 15 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).
“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”Attributed to Congressional Budget Office — not scored
“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“the 30-year Treasury is already above 5%, the highest in nearly two decades.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“the average American carries thousands of dollars in credit card debt at rates already above 20%. That number is not going down anytime soon.”Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“That number is not going down anytime soon.”
May 21, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“the 30-year Treasury is already above 5%, the highest in nearly two decades.”
May 21, 2026
Graham StephanInterest rateswill rise
“And that's the fact that interest rates can stay higher for longer. And the biggest risk is that if 5% becomes the new floor instead of the prior ceiling, that's when we got problems,”
May 18, 2026 · after 1 year
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“Now, the most important bond to look at right now is the 10-year Treasury and its yield, which was in the threes when this war started, but it went up in the last 4 weeks.”
Apr 7, 2026 · after 1 year
Joseph CarlsonInterest rateswill fall
“Lower interest rates benefit these companies immensely, and interest rates will continue to go lower.”
Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days
Coin BureauInterest rateswill rise
“Markets don't price in institutional decay the way they price in earnings reports, but compound this over decades and they'll contribute to a permanent increase in government borrowing costs.”
Sep 30, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin BureauInterest rates— no direction stated
“the new normal is a world where rates stay elevated and the affordability crisis slowly rugs most of us”
Jun 29, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Interest rates will rise
“currently How expects global liquidity to peak somewhere around the third quarter of 2025”
May 30, 2025
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“And you could start to see a world where interest rates in the US actually go up, not because of inflation, but because creditors just don't show up to the auction.”
May 27, 2025 · after 1 year
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“And now for the first time in decades, Japan may not just stop buying US treasuries, they might start selling them.”
May 27, 2025
Coin BureauInterest rates— no direction stated
“the Fed's recent concerns around bond market volatility could result in them stopping doing QT completely”
Apr 20, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin BureauInterest rateswill rise
“Taken together this all suggests that long-term interest rates will continue rising in the coming years along with mortgage rates”
Apr 10, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin BureauInterest rateswill fall
“investors can be expected to flee from risk assets into the safety of US 10-year Treasury notes pushing down their yields and therefore the size of the government's debt repayments”
Apr 8, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin Bureau, relaying BNP Paribas: Interest rates — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“this is why for example B&P parar is expecting the yield on the 10-year bond in Germany to stabilize in the range between 2.5% to 3% in the near term”
Mar 29, 2025
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill fall
“the us could be heading toward a long-term period of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar high growth similar to what happened after the original Plaza Accord”
Feb 6, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin BureauInterest rates— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the central bank is planning some policy overhaul this year they're likely to reduce its current rate to 1.5% at an approp from 1.5% at an appropriate time”
Jan 6, 2025
Coin BureauInterest rates— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the 10year Chinese bond yield just look at that it's it's it's crazy how it's been falling it's near alltime lows um and obviously China at 1.6%”
Jan 6, 2025
Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Interest rates will rise
“long rates I think have a way to go further up”
Dec 19, 2024
Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Interest rates will rise
“I also said long-term rates were going up I've said that on your program several times and I I think they're going to go up more”
Dec 19, 2024
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Interest rates will rise
“the FED will continue to let its balance sheet run off in plain English the FED will continue selling assets from its balance sheet”
Sep 25, 2024
Coin BureauInterest rateswill rise
“in the longer term the fed's rate Cuts risk reigniting inflation which in turn risks sending interest rates higher”
Sep 25, 2024 · after 1 year
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Interest rates will rise
“the biggest risk seems to be that interest rates will stay higher than economic growth as that could drag everything down”
Aug 4, 2024
Showing the newest 30 of 93.
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 78 calls about interest rates that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED. At one year: 12 correct, 10 incorrect, 1 still open. The other 55 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
