Coin Bureau: Interest rates will rise

The window it was checked over

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

re-evaluating  the significance of these government tantrums, no   longer as temporary disruptions, but as evidence  of quote governance erosion. Moody's specifically   mentioned fiscal brinkmanship when explaining  their negative outlook on US credit. Fitch cited   quote repeated debt limit political standoffs when  they downgraded US debt in 2023. Each new entry in   the shutdown law, each escalation that becomes  precedent adds a tiny bit to America's sovereign   risk premium. It's not visible dayto-day. Markets  don't price in institutional decay the way they   price in earnings reports, but compound this over  decades and they'll contribute to a permanent   increase in government borrowing costs. When the  world's so-called risk-free rate becomes slightly   less risk-free, everything reprices eventually.  So, markets are probably right that the latest   shutdown won't cause a crash in financial asset  prices, but they're probably wrong that it doesn't   matter at all. Stock prices reflect corporate  earnings which barely budge during shutdowns.   GDP reflects actual economic activity, which  absolutely does. Estimates from the Congressional   Budget Office and Goldman Sachs calculate the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.