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Joseph Carlson: Interest rates will fall

Said on Nov 5, 2025, at 14:56 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“Lower interest rates benefit these companies immensely, and interest rates will continue to go lower.”
Watch at 14:566 Stocks To Buy In An Overvalued Market
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days

Reading when said

4%

Nov 5, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

May 4, 2026

Change

−0.25 pp

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 4, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202220232024202520262026Said on Nov 5, 2025
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%2022202420252026Said on Nov 5, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4%4%Dec 5, 20250.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4%3.75%Feb 3, 2026−0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4%3.75%May 4, 2026−0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Pending——Nov 5, 2026——
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 4, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 4, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Dec 5, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 3, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 4, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 5, 2026.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 4, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 4, 2030.

What was said around it

mix. This is a category that should see massive tailwinds over the next couple of years. One of them is interest rates being lowered. These companies benefit in diverse ways from interest rates being lowered. There's higher debt issuance which benefits S&P Global and Moody's. More people take out loans which benefits companies like Equifax. More people take out mortgages which benefits FICO and again Equifax. There's also just more economic activity and more interest in investment, which benefits S&P Global's data, market, and indices business. Lower interest rates benefit these companies immensely, and interest rates will continue to go lower. President Trump even said that the new Fed chair that he's putting in, the major reason he's kicking out JPAL and putting in a new one is to lower interest rates. Another thing that will benefit these businesses is artificial intelligence. They'll be able to do more with fewer employees. As AI picks up steam and these tools get implemented across these companies, they will be able to offer more tools, more products for their customers at reduced costs. So you'll see margins and operating leverage continue to pick up. So even though the market

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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