Said on Jun 5, 2026, at 29:05 in the video.
“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 90 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 180 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 1 yearR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
basically the market's way of telling the Fed it should be increasing interest rates, not lowering them. But if Kevin Warsh lowers interest rates into an inflation spike when oil is going up, right? Then the dollar falls, inflation gets worse, and bond yields go up even higher as more countries and investors lose confidence and sell more of their US bonds. But if he increases interest rates, the stock market drops because corporate borrowing costs go up. And this whole AI spending boom that's been holding up 93% of US GDP growth now has a much higher cost of capital, right? Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up. And higher yields are the one thing that could pop everything we've talked about, like all the paper profits and the circular spending and the $150 billion in corporate bonds that all these companies issued to fund their AI spending, right? All of it gets more expensive. And it comes under pressure right at the three biggest IPOs in history. So that is the macro big picture reason for why they might be changing these rules right now. Because the window might be closing. And maybe the people on the inside kind of know that. Okay, so how do you make money or at the very
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”
Sep 3, 2026
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”
Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated
“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise
“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”
Jun 1, 2026
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”
May 26, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanInterest rateswill rise
“the 30-year Treasury is already above 5%, the highest in nearly two decades.”
May 21, 2026 · after 1 year
