Said on Apr 20, 2025, at 6:52 in the video.
“the Fed's recent concerns around bond market
volatility could result in them stopping doing QT completely”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 90 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 180 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 1 yearR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
than risk assets like crypto again this will probably continue so long as the tariff uncertainty continues however this doesn't change the fact that the macro catalysts related to the Fed are looking better by the day now the fact that the Fed announced that it would stabilize the bond market in the event of volatility effectively confirmed that it will do QE if necessary and something similar could happen sooner the Fed's next policy decision will be announced on May 7th and though investors aren't expecting any rate cuts the Fed's recent concerns around bond market volatility could result in them stopping doing QT completely which would be supportive of liquidity conditions around the margins it's also important to remember that the Fed's most recent interest rate forecast notes that it will be lowering interest rates below 4% by the end of the year and if inflation comes in lower than expected and the economy continues to weaken in the coming months the Fed could cut rates even sooner which would likewise be supportive of liquidity conditions around the margins and this ties into the third macro catalyst to watch and that's stimulus coming from
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”
Sep 3, 2026
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”
Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”
Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated
“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise
“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”
Jun 1, 2026
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”
May 26, 2026 · after 1 year
