Graham Stephan: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

that the Fed doesn't need to cut rates because the market did it for them. So, that's always a possibility. In fact, even when the Treasury signaled that they would be buying back their own debt, these interest rates remained pretty much unchanged. But keep in mind that there is the chance as well that they do raise interest rates just to signal that they want to be tough on inflation. And if that happens, the data says that so far the economy could probably support it, although the stock market's not going to be happy. But really though, in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%. The last time this happened was back in 2007 right before the Great Financial Crisis. And this is largely considered the financial barrier between everything is fine and oh we are So, truth be told, they're probably doing everything possible to make sure everything stays okay before something breaks. So, in terms of my own thoughts and what you could do to prepare, here is what I'm doing going forward. Look, it might not be a surprise at this point, but I've been following Ryan Detrick on Twitter for well over a year now. And his data is

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