Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Joseph Carlson: Interest rates will fall

Said on Jan 17, 2024, at 18:30 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“if I had a guess I think there's more opportunity for them to go down than to go up”
Watch at 18:30I Valued Every Stock I Own
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Jan 17, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Jan 16, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 16, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120212022202320242025Said on Jan 17, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220232025Said on Jan 17, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 16, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Apr 16, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jul 15, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Jan 16, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jan 16, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jan 15, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 16, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Apr 16, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 15, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 16, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 16, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 15, 2029.

What was said around it

now you might be asking why didn't I move the intrinsic value estimate up for vichi over the past year the fact is that vichi has a lot of long-term contracts 40-year contracts with their tenants so they are uniquely sensitive to interest rate fluctuations interest rates have gone up a lot over the past year so even though vichi has grown I believe that the intrinsic value relative to interest rates has remained the same if interest rates go down I believe that vichi will trade up closer to the s we don't know what direction interest rates are going but if I had a guess I think there's more opportunity for them to go down than to go up after vichi we have apple which I have a total value of $52,500 and currently $23,700 in the green my intrinsic value for Apple in 2023 was $190 and in 2024 I put the intrinsic value at $ 100 $90 like vichi it has not changed year-over-year and if we look at Apple we can see that the main intrinsic value drivers of the company have stagnated over the past year for example the revenue is flat over the past year the free Cal of the companies also flattish for the past year the earnings per share of the company are also flat for the past year and the capital

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable