Said on May 26, 2026, at 27:04 in the video.
“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 90 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 180 daysR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 1 yearR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-FED v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.
of the stock market right now, it looks very expensive by a couple different metrics. For example, [snorts] something called the price to sales ratio is at a record high, right? Something called the price to book ratio is also at a record high. The forward price to earnings ratio is sitting at around 24 times, which is historically very high. And the dividend yield is close to a record low at 1%. Right? which means you are paying maximum prices for minimum income. That is not a good combination under any circumstances. But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher. Think about it this way. Why would you buy a stock that pays you 1% in dividends when you can buy a Treasury bond that pays you 5% with essentially no risk? Right? The only reason you would do that is if you thought the stock market would grow more than that at a time when the market is already at a very expensive value. Right now, there's also another thing about the stock market that makes it historically expensive. It's called the Buffett indicator, but with Luke Groman's adjustment from FFTT. So, if you took the total
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”
Sep 3, 2026
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”
Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year
Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise
“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”
Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated
“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise
“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”
Jun 1, 2026
Graham StephanInterest rateswill rise
“the 30-year Treasury is already above 5%, the highest in nearly two decades.”
May 21, 2026 · after 1 year
