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Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will fall

Said on Jun 9, 2023, at 12:27 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“my bet is that well six years from now interest rates will still be lower than where they are today because as a country we are addicted to cheap rates”
Watch at 12:27My 6 BEST Passive Income Ideas For $100 A Day
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.25%

Jun 9, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Jun 8, 2024

Change

+0.25 pp

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 8, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320232024Said on Jun 9, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Jun 9, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.25%Jul 9, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Sep 7, 2023+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Dec 6, 2023+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Jun 8, 2024+0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.25%3.75%Jun 8, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 7, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 9, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 7, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 6, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 8, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jun 8, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 7, 2028.

What was said around it

need to be comfortable taking on debt it's also not a very liquid investment meaning it'll take a while to get your money out and it's not the most passive thing on this list now I would not consider myself to be knowledgeable with real estate because I got into it last year at a 2.5 adjustable rate mortgage but my rate is locked in for seven years despite what happens to interest rates today and the loan has a limit of about seven percent so I calculated that worst case scenario seven percent was still affordable but my bet is that well six years from now interest rates will still be lower than where they are today because as a country we are addicted to cheap rates but in the meantime I'm getting the tax Advantage Plus rent and it's pretty passive I have an amazing management company that takes care of it for me but the truth is overall if I had known the future about interest rates it would have made more sense to just take the 20 down payment that I used to buy the house and to park it inside of a bond that paid me five percent and that would have made about as much money but with less work and less stress so if you're an expert which I'm not real estate could be extremely powerful

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable