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Joseph Carlson: Interest rates will rise

Said on Sep 22, 2022, at 0:45 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“interest rates are going higher for longer than expected which is causing a lot of investors to panic”
Watch at 0:45I'm Excited About What Jerome Powell Just Said | Joseph Carlson Ep. 273
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

3.25%

Sep 22, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Sep 22, 2023

Change

+2.25 pp

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 22, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 22, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Sep 22, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.25%3.25%Oct 22, 20220.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct3.25%4.5%Dec 21, 2022+1.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct3.25%4.75%Mar 21, 2023+1.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct3.25%5.5%Sep 22, 2023+2.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct3.25%4.25%Sep 21, 2025+1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 21, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 22, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 21, 2022, a net change of +1.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 125 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 21, 2023, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 22, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Sep 21, 2025, a net change of +1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 21, 2027.

What was said around it

pundits now are coming to the same realization that interest rates are forecasted to be higher for longer which puts downward pressure on the markets in fact this is a pretty substantial adjustment from just a month ago before yesterday the median official expected interest rate by the end of the year was somewhere between 3.25 percent and 3.5 percent this is what we're expecting before yesterday and now drone pal has raised these expectations up to 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent almost an entire percentage increase from one meeting to the next so interest rates are going higher for longer than expected which is causing a lot of investors to panic that not only is a Fed expecting interest rates to go higher for longer but they're also expecting inflation to take longer to go down for example with our update 8 just yesterday Jerome pal and the FED are now predicting that inflation will go down to 2.1 percent which is their goal in 2025. that's right 2025 no longer is this just a one-year thing so interest rates are going higher than expected inflation is around longer than expected quantitative tightening is going to need to happen more aggressively than expected unemployment rate is ticking

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable