Coin Bureau: Interest rates will rise

Said on Aug 4, 2024, at 15:32 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the fact that interest rates seem to have bottomed out during the pandemic suggests that they could be starting a long-term uptrend”
Watch at 15:32Watch Out!! Economy Could Get Worse?! The BIS Predicts This!
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 4, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Aug 4, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 4, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252025Said on Aug 4, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242025Said on Aug 4, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 3, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5%Nov 2, 2024−0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%4.5%Jan 31, 2025−1.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%4.5%Aug 4, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 4, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 3, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 3, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Nov 2, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 31, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 4, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 4, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 3, 2029.

What was said around it

enough the authors start by recounting how the 21st century has so far featured A Series of Unfortunate Events including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic they note that the pandemic effectively marked the bottom for the decline in interest rates that began after 2008 and could have marked the top for the size of central bank balance sheets for those unaware central banks will buy government debt to stimulate the economy during times of crisis news flash this is what the so-called money printing actually entails now the fact that interest rates seem to have bottomed out during the pandemic suggests that they could be starting a long-term uptrend this possibility can be seen on the long-term chart of the federal funds rate it reveals that interest rates fell from the 1980s to the 2020s and now seem to be rising again as a fun fact when interest rates began their last uptrend in the 1950s Eur European stocks were all the rage in the 1960s it was American stocks and in the 1970s it was Commodities in the 1980s it was Japanese stocks in the 1990s it was American stocks again and then in the 2000s it was Commodities right now we're in the foreign stocks phase can you guess what

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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