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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will fall

Said on Nov 1, 2019, at 3:10 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“usually expect them to take one to five days to announce their new lower worth sir sadder interest rates paid on savings accounts”
Watch at 3:10Robinhood just sent me this..
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.75%

Nov 1, 2019

Reading at close

0.25%

Oct 31, 2020

Change

−1.50 pp

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 31, 2020, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201620172018201920202021Said on Nov 1, 2019
0%1%2%3%2016201820192021Said on Nov 1, 2019

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%1.75%Dec 1, 20190.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%1.75%Jan 30, 20200.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%0.25%Apr 29, 2020−1.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1.75%0.25%Oct 31, 2020−1.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1.75%3.25%Oct 31, 2022+1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct1.75%5%Oct 30, 2024+3.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Dec 1, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jan 30, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Apr 29, 2020, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 31, 2020, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 31, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Oct 30, 2024, a net change of +3.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

going to rest on how much lower other banks reduce their interest rates and whether or not Robin Hood could still remain competitive by paying one point eight percent but I do have to hand it to Robin Hood for being the very first to make this interest rate adjustment before anyone else and also giving me a very wonderful surprise video for me to film and make on a Thursday morning they certainly didn't waste any time they were very quick to react and I definitely have to respect that though as for all of the other banks out there usually expect them to take one to five days to announce their new lower worth sir sadder interest rates paid on savings accounts and this is why all of this is happening first interest rates paid by savings accounts are not fixed and they're going to be fluctuating over time for better or for worse now here's how this works in very simplistic terms banks want you to deposit money with them so that they could turn around and use that money to invest elsewhere now the bank makes a profit on the spread between what they make investing your money and what they pay you back in interest so if the bank is going and making a two and a half percent return but paying

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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