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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Jul 27, 2022, at 8:18 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“most likely these amounts are going even higher”
Watch at 8:18THE FED JUST FLIPPED THE MARKET | Major Changes Explained
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.75%

Jul 27, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Jul 27, 2023

Change

+3.75 pp

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 27, 2023, a net change of +3.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 375 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232023Said on Jul 27, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222023Said on Jul 27, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%2.5%Aug 26, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%3.25%Oct 25, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%4.5%Jan 23, 2023+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1.75%5.5%Jul 27, 2023+3.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1.75%4.5%Jul 26, 2025+2.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jul 26, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 26, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 25, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 23, 2023, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 27, 2023, a net change of +3.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 375 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jul 26, 2025, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 375 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 26, 2027.

What was said around it

not paying you high interest at all this was partially done as an incentive for people to spend and invest their cash because otherwise if they kept sitting in a savings account they would lose value to inflation but now that the Federal Reserve has begun to raise rates savings accounts are actually paying you a healthy amount like the good old days when Ally Bank used to pay 2.2 percent and a savings account could outperform the stock market so in terms of where these magical money accounts exist these are my top five favorite Banks paying a good amount of interest and most likely these amounts are going even higher first we got Ally Bank this is a company that I've been with for over a decade and they're currently offering a 1.25 interest rate within their completely free savings account second we got Marcus by Goldman Sachs this is another completely free savings account that pays you 1.2 percent and they've got really great reviews third we got Sofi who's currently offering one and a half percent and they'll give you up to 300 when you sign up and set up direct deposit fourth CIT bank is one of the highest at one point six five percent and fifth one who's paying the most is Citizens

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable