Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on May 17, 2021, at 5:24 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“eventually interest rates will probably go up and things will return to normal”
Watch at 5:24The Stock Market Just Flipped
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

May 17, 2021

Reading at close

1%

May 17, 2022

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 1.00% on May 17, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201820192020202020212022Said on May 17, 2021
0%1%2%3%2018201920212022Said on May 17, 2021

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jun 16, 20210.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Aug 15, 20210.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Nov 13, 20210.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.25%1%May 17, 2022+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%5.5%May 16, 2024+5.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%3.75%May 16, 2026+3.50 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 16, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Aug 15, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Nov 13, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 1.00% on May 17, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 16, 2024, a net change of +5.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 16, 2026, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

going to sell off some stocks rotate your money into treasury bonds and then relax in Hawaii while drinking my ties well guess what the 10-year treasury yield has just started to pay more and usually when that happens stocks tend to go down but on the other hand the opposite happens when interest rates go down when that occurs growth in tech stocks look like a better option and they go up and that's why throughout the last year with interest rates at record lows they performed incredibly well but as we all know most likely that is not sustainable forever and eventually interest rates will probably go up and things will return to normal however when it comes to this drone po of the federal Reserve reassured everyone that interest rates would be staying low until 2023 there's still plenty of time to print tendies and that any signs of inflation that we see today are just temporary so what's going on and why did my portfolio keep dropping $80,000 a day last week well let's look at the actual data behind this to determine whether or not this is something we should worry about and to do that we need to look at exactly how they calculate the inflation rate because this is going to make a difference

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable