Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will fall

Said on May 23, 2022, at 11:47 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“it is my belief and i could be totally wrong but i believe that seven years from now rates will be lower than they are today”
Watch at 11:47The Market Just Peaked | How To Stay Safe
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

1%

May 23, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

May 23, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 23, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202120222023Said on May 23, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on May 23, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1%1.75%Jun 22, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1%2.5%Aug 21, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1%4%Nov 19, 2022+3.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect1%5.25%May 23, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect1%4.5%May 22, 2025+3.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 22, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jun 22, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 21, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 19, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 23, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 22, 2025, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 22, 2027.

What was said around it

highest levels of growth relative to people's incomes then those are the cities that are the most exposed to falling prices and here's a map of some of those cities now if you live in the cheaper cities then you are obviously more protected personally i put my money where my mouth is and i took out a seven year arm adjustable rate mortgage which is that in seven years from now whatever the rate is that's the rate i'll be locked in at i took out as big of a loan as i could afford that's the key as big of a loan as i could afford and it is my belief and i could be totally wrong but i believe that seven years from now rates will be lower than they are today because i believe that our government and our corporations are addicted to cheap money we use low interest rates to stimulate growth and our politicians love to use that mechanism of interest rates to win elections and you can see these cycles of boom and bust in politics all the time in fact if you look at our historic interest rates over the last few decades you can see for yourself that rates like to stay closer to zero that's because once again we love cheap money and i don't think that addiction is going to change any time soon

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable