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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on May 11, 2020, at 13:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“realistically I think this is probably gonna be the most likely situation that happens just interest rates go up taxes go up and we take home less money”
Watch at 13:02INFLATION WARNING: The 2020 DEBT Bubble Explained
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

0.25%

May 11, 2020

Reading at close

0.25%

May 11, 2021

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on May 11, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201720182019201920202021Said on May 11, 2020
0%1%2%3%2017201820202021Said on May 11, 2020

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jun 10, 20200.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Aug 9, 20200.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Nov 7, 20200.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%May 11, 20210.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%5.25%May 11, 2023+5.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%May 10, 2025+4.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 10, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Aug 9, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Nov 7, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on May 11, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 11, 2023, a net change of +5.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 10, 2025, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

although it can be if interest rates go up or the debt continues to grow higher and higher above our GDP however this type of debt is necessary to continue reinvesting back into the infrastructure of our economy and when you consider that the United States is operated on a debt since 1789 begin to realize that maybe it's not as bad as it seems but it's certainly something to keep an eye on and be aware of unless you don't mind paying more in taxes in the future to help fund all of this debt that we're accumulating now realistically I think this is probably gonna be the most likely situation that happens just interest rates go up taxes go up and we take home less money because sometimes what could be borrowed today does end up taking away from tomorrow so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching I really appreciate it as always if you guys enjoy videos like this make sure to destroy the like button subscribe button notification bell also feel free to add me on Instagram I post here pretty much daily so if you want to be a part of it there feel free to add me there as on my second channel the Graham Stefan show I post there every single day I'm not posting here so if you

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

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“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable